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Oil & Natural Gas

Price Escalation Forecast Released for 2004 Year

The Comptroller’s Revenue Estimating Division has announced its oil and natural gas price increase forecast for the 2004 tax year, as required by Tax Code Section 23.175.

Appraisers use the escalation forecast in projecting future income for oil and gas properties for the income method of appraisal. The escalation forecast is the projected expectations for changes in oil and gas prices each year.

The law states that appraisers may increase or decrease the prices used in an appraisal “if market conditions warrant." If appraisers increase prices when appraising mineral properties, they must use an annual percentage rate of increase not greater than the increase projected for that year by the Comptroller for revenue estimating purposes.

The law further requires that “in no event may the price used in the second or any succeeding year of an appraisal exceed 150 percent of the price used in the current year of the appraisal.”

Appraisal districts should not use the forecasted oil and natural gas prices indicated in the chart to estimate taxable values. Section 23.175 requires districts to use the 2003 average product price for each individual property as the base price for 2004. These escalation forecasts are only for projecting future income.


Year Statewide Taxable
Crude Oil
$/BBL		 Percent Change Statewide Taxable
Natural Gas
$/MCF		 Percent Change
2004 $ 24.10 -- $ 3.62 --
2005 $ 23.55 -2.28% $ 3.33 -8.01%
2006 $ 23.97 1.78% $ 3.18 -4.50%
2007 $24.37 1.67% $ 3.24 1.89%
2008 $24.73 1.48% $ 3.30 1.85%
2009 $25.09 1.46% $ 3.35 1.52%
2010 $25.44 1.39% $ 3.41 1.79%
2011 $25.78 1.34% $ 3.48 2.05%
2012 $26.14 1.40% $ 3.55 2.01%
2013 $26.48 1.30% $ 3.61 1.69%
2014 $26.82 1.28% $ 3.68 1.94%
2015 $27.17 1.30% $ 3.74 1.63%
2016 $27.53 1.32% $ 3.82 2.14%
2017 $27.86 1.20% $ 3.88 1.57%
2018 $28.21 1.26% $ 3.95 1.80%
2019 $28.52 1.10% $ 4.01 1.52%
2020 $28.83 1.09% $ 4.08 1.75%
2021 $29.13 1.04% $ 4.15 1.72%
2022 $29.44 1.06% $ 4.21 1.45%
2023 $29.74 1.02% $ 4.28 1.66%
2024 $30.04 1.01% $ 4.35 1.64%
2025 $30.34 1.00% $ 4.41 1.38%
2026 $30.64 0.99% $ 4.47 1.36%
2027 $30.95 1.01% $ 4.54 1.57%
Note: Published prices, such as Nymex or spot WTI, are higher than taxable prices.
Source: Carole Keeton Strayhorn, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Revenue Estimating Division