Statement - January 2003

Oil & Natural Gas

Price Escalation Forecast Released for 2003 Year

The Comptroller’s Revenue Estimating Division has announced its oil and natural gas price increase forecast for the 2003 tax year, as required by Section 23.175, Property Tax Code. The law states that appraisers may increase or decrease the prices used in an appraisal “if market conditions warrant." If appraisers increase prices when appraising mineral properties, they should use an annual percentage rate of increase not greater than the increase projected for that year by the Comptroller for revenue estimating purposes.

The law further states that “in no event may the price used in the second or any succeeding year of an appraisal exceed 150 percent of the price used in the current year of the appraisal.”

Appraisal districts should not use the forecasted oil and natural gas prices indicated in the chart to estimate taxable values. Section 23.175 requires districts to use the 2002 average product price for each individual property as the base price for 2003. The escalation forecast is used in the appraisal process in projecting future income.

Year Statewide Taxable Crude
Oil $/BBL Percent Change Statewide Taxable Natural
Gas $/MCF Percent Change

2003 $ 20.94 --- $ 2.85 ---

2004 $ 20.27 -3.20% $ 2.74 -3.86%

2005 $ 20.62 1.73% $ 2.64 -3.65%

2006 $ 20.91 1.41% $ 2.71 2.65%

2007 $ 21.20 1.39% $ 2.78 2.58%

2008 $ 21.46 1.23% $ 2.85 2.52%

2009 $ 21.67 0.98% $ 2.91 2.11%

2010 $ 21.85 0.83% $ 2.97 2.06%

2011 $ 22.02 0.78% $ 3.04 2.36%

2012 $ 22.20 0.82% $ 3.10 1.97%

2013 $ 22.35 0.68% $ 3.15 1.61%

2014 $ 22.51 0.72% $ 3.21 1.90%

2015 $ 22.67 0.71% $ 3.26 1.56%

2016 $ 22.83 0.71% $ 3.32 1.84%

2017 $ 22.96 0.57% $ 3.37 1.51%

2018 $ 23.10 0.61% $ 3.42 1.48%

2019 $ 23.24 0.61% $ 3.47 1.46%

2020 $ 23.38 0.60% $ 3.52 1.44%

2021 $ 23.52 0.60% $ 3.57 1.42%

2022 $ 23.66 0.60% $ 3.61 1.12%

2023 $ 23.78 0.51% $ 3.66 1.39%

2024 $ 23.90 0.50% $ 3.71 1.37%

2025 $ 24.02 0.50% $ 3.75 1.08%

2026 $ 24.14 0.50% $ 3.79 1.07%

Note: Published prices, such as Nymex or spot WTI, are higher than taxable prices.
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Revenue Estimating Division

Year	Statewide Taxable Crude Oil $/BBL	Percent Change	Statewide Taxable Natural Gas $/MCF	Percent Change
2003	$ 20.94	---	$ 2.85	---
2004	$ 20.27	-3.20%	$ 2.74	-3.86%
2005	$ 20.62	1.73%	$ 2.64	-3.65%
2006	$ 20.91	1.41%	$ 2.71	2.65%
2007	$ 21.20	1.39%	$ 2.78	2.58%
2008	$ 21.46	1.23%	$ 2.85	2.52%
2009	$ 21.67	0.98%	$ 2.91	2.11%
2010	$ 21.85	0.83%	$ 2.97	2.06%
2011	$ 22.02	0.78%	$ 3.04	2.36%
2012	$ 22.20	0.82%	$ 3.10	1.97%
2013	$ 22.35	0.68%	$ 3.15	1.61%
2014	$ 22.51	0.72%	$ 3.21	1.90%
2015	$ 22.67	0.71%	$ 3.26	1.56%
2016	$ 22.83	0.71%	$ 3.32	1.84%
2017	$ 22.96	0.57%	$ 3.37	1.51%
2018	$ 23.10	0.61%	$ 3.42	1.48%
2019	$ 23.24	0.61%	$ 3.47	1.46%
2020	$ 23.38	0.60%	$ 3.52	1.44%
2021	$ 23.52	0.60%	$ 3.57	1.42%
2022	$ 23.66	0.60%	$ 3.61	1.12%
2023	$ 23.78	0.51%	$ 3.66	1.39%
2024	$ 23.90	0.50%	$ 3.71	1.37%
2025	$ 24.02	0.50%	$ 3.75	1.08%
2026	$ 24.14	0.50%	$ 3.79	1.07%