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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Price Escalation Forecast
2006 Tax Year

The Comptroller’s Revenue Estimating Division has released the Crude Oil and Natural Gas Price Escalation Forecast for the 2006 tax year.

Although the Forecast is primarily used by the Comptroller to estimate projected state revenue from oil and gas production, it also provides limitations on price increases in crude oil and natural gas property appraisals administered by local appraisal districts for property tax purposes. Appraisal districts should not use the actual crude oil and natural gas prices listed in the Forecast to calculate taxable values. Section 23.175 of the Texas Property Tax Code requires appraisal districts to use the 2005 average crude oil and natural gas price for each property as the base price for the property during the 2006 tax year.

The tax code prohibits the price used in the second or any subsequent year of an appraisal from exceeding 150 percent of the base price used in the first year of the appraisal. Appraisers may project an increase or decrease in crude oil and natural gas prices used in subsequent years of an appraisal, but the law provides that appraisers may not increase prices greater than the percent of increase projected by the Comptroller on a year-to-year basis, as listed in the Forecast.

Please contact the Comptroller's Property Tax Division at 1-800-252-9121 for more information.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Price Escalation Forecast
2006 Tax Year
Year Statewide Taxable Crude Oil Statewide Taxable Natural Gas
Price $/bbl Percent Change Price $/mcf Percent Change
2006 51.88 - 7.92 -
2007 47.25 -8.92% 5.91 -25.38%
2008 44.13 -6.60% 5.33 -9.81%
2009 43.69 -1.00% 5.06 -5.07%
2010 43.25 -1.01% 5.14 1.58%
2011 43.90 1.50% 5.21 1.36%
2012 44.32 0.96% 5.19 -0.38%
2013 44.27 -0.11% 5.43 4.62%
2014 44.08 -0.43% 5.49 1.10%
2015 43.88 -0.45% 5.50 0.18%
2016 44.15 0.62% 5.56 1.09%
2017 44.66 1.16% 5.64 1.44%
2018 45.18 1.16% 5.42 -3.90%
2019 45.72 1.20% 5.62 3.69%
2020 46.28 1.22% 5.76 2.49%
2021 48.50 4.80% 5.94 3.13%
2022 50.13 3.36% 6.12 3.03%
2023 52.19 4.11% 6.31 3.10%
2024 53.95 3.37% 6.51 3.17%
2025 55.56 2.98% 6.71 3.07%
2026 57.09 2.75% 6.91 2.98%
2027 58.67 2.77% 7.13 3.18%
2028 60.14 2.51% 7.35 3.09%
2029 61.65 2.51% 7.58 3.13%
2030 63.30 2.68% 7.81 3.03%
Note: Published prices, such as Nymex or spot WTI, are higher than taxable prices.