Certification Revenue Estimate 2012-13
Table 4 – Texas Economic History and Outlook for Fiscal Years 2004-13
Winter 2011-12 Forecast
TEXAS ECONOMY
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011* |
2012* |
2013* |
|---|
|
Gross State Product (Billions, 2005 $) |
$953.2 |
$975.2 |
$1,002.0 |
$1,056.6 |
$1,082.6 |
$1,063.0 |
$1,102.8 |
$1,127.1 |
$1,150.0 |
$1,178.1 |
|
Annual percent change |
3.9% |
2.3% |
2.8% |
5.4% |
2.5% |
-1.8% |
3.7% |
2.2% |
2.0% |
2.4% |
|---|
|
Personal Income (Billions, Current $) |
$683.7 |
$740.7 |
$808.4 |
$867.3 |
$952.7 |
$960.8 |
$979.7 |
$1,035.8 |
$1,080.3 |
$1,120.1 |
|---|
| Annual percent change |
6.1% |
8.3% |
9.1% |
7.3% |
9.8% |
0.8% |
2.0% |
5.7% |
4.3% |
3.7% |
|
Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) |
9,450 |
9,667 |
9,985 |
10,313 |
10,584 |
10,404 |
10,291 |
10,520 |
10,671 |
10,834 |
|---|
| Annual percent change |
0.8% |
2.3% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
2.6% |
-1.7% |
-1.1% |
2.2% |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
Resident Population (Thousands) |
22,377 |
22,771 |
23,343 |
23,783 |
24,252 |
24,729 |
25,204 |
25,673 |
26,142 |
26,599 |
|---|
| Annual percent change |
1.6% |
1.8% |
2.5% |
1.9% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.8% |
1.7% |
|
Unemployment Rate (%) |
6.3% |
5.5% |
5.1% |
4.5% |
4.7% |
6.9% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
8.3% |
8.1% |
|---|
|
Oil Price ($ per Barrel) |
$32.50 |
$46.92 |
$61.19 |
$59.13 |
$98.86 |
$60.03 |
$72.75 |
$87.85 |
$78.65 |
$78.67 |
|---|
|
Natural Gas Price ($ per McF) |
$4.79 |
$5.80 |
$7.55 |
$6.18 |
$7.50 |
$5.13 |
$3.96 |
$4.13 |
$3.98 |
$3.93 |
|---|
U.S. ECONOMY
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011* |
2012* |
2013* |
|---|
| Gross Domestic Product (Billions, 2005 $) |
$12,159.8 |
$12,535.9 |
$12,882.8 |
$13,134.5 |
$13,272.6 |
$12,720.6 |
$12,987.3 |
$13,255.8 |
$13,473.8 |
$13,753.0 |
|---|
| Annual percent change |
3.7% |
3.1% |
2.8% |
2.0% |
1.1% |
-4.2% |
2.1% |
2.1% |
1.6% |
2.1% |
|
Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) |
187.3 |
193.5 |
200.6 |
205.3 |
214.4 |
213.8 |
217.4 |
223.0 |
227.2 |
231.3 |
|---|
| Annual percent change |
2.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
2.3% |
4.4% |
-0.3% |
1.7% |
2.6% |
1.9% |
1.8% |
|
Prime Interest Rate (%) |
4.1% |
5.7% |
7.6% |
8.2% |
6.0% |
3.5% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
|---|
*Estimated or Projected
SOURCES: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts and IHS Global Insight, Inc.
