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Projections of Growth in the Moving Media Industry in Texas through 2011

To make any reasonable projections about the growth of the moving media industry in Texas, we first need to look at forecasts for the United States. Veronis Suhler Stevenson (VSS) has forecast expenditures by industry segment for the period 2007 to 2011.

Table 10 summarizes the VSS national projections for spending growth in films, television, commercials and video games/animation between 2007 and 2011. In making our projections of industry spending for Texas, we have developed two scenarios. Under scenario one, we assume that spending in each segment of the Texas moving media industry matches the national growth rate between 2007 and 2011. In scenario two, we assume that industry spending in Texas grows at twice the national rate, implying that the state succeeds in increasing its relative share of the business – perhaps in response to the new incentive program.

With scenario one, by the year 2011 moving media production has grown to a $408 million industry in Texas while under scenario two, it becomes a $523 million industry in the state (see Table 11). Once again using the IMPLAN input-output model, we can estimate the overall economic and fiscal impacts on the state from this spending (see Table 12).

In Scenario 1, total spending for all industry segments in 2011 will approach $408 million. This spending will generate about $623 million in state economic activity, boost labor earnings by $118 million and support almost 3,000 jobs. In addition, media industry spending will create almost $51 million in property income and more than $10 million in indirect business taxes, of which about $7 million will accrue to the state. If the state succeeds in boosting its share of media industry activity to more than $522 million (scenario 2), the state will enjoy almost $800 million in related economic activity supporting more than 3,700 jobs paying $150 million in salaries, wages and benefits. State and local indirect tax revenues will increase by $13.4 million ($9.4 million to the state) and property income in the form of rents, royalties, dividends and corporate profits will rise by $65 million.