CHAPTER TWENTY-THREE
Efficiency and Conservation
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Exhibit 23-3
Effect of Efficiency, Demand Response and Combined Heat and Power on Demand Forecasts
| Peak Demand | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 63,222 | 64,318 | 65,950 | 67,548 | 69,034 | 70,561 | 72,123 | 73,719 | 75,350 | 77,017 | 78,749 | 80,521 | 82,332 | 84,184 | 86,077 |
| Residential Savings | 228 | 424 | 631 | 1,028 | 1,406 | 1,997 | 2,746 | 3,546 | 4,347 | 5,100 | 5,849 | 6,849 | 7,603 | 8,233 | 8,766 |
| Commercial Savings | 151 | 277 | 431 | 706 | 968 | 1,362 | 1,880 | 2,404 | 2,938 | 3,438 | 3,973 | 4,631 | 5,288 | 5,833 | 6,196 |
| Industrial Savings | 305 | 612 | 919 | 1,239 | 1,574 | 1,902 | 2,263 | 2,621 | 2,995 | 3,385 | 3,426 | 3,478 | 3,507 | 3,500 | 3,566 |
| Demand Response | 1,112 | 1,500 | 2,000 | 2,500 | 3,000 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 |
| Combined Heat and Power | 500 | 1,000 | 1,500 | 2,000 | 2,500 | 3,000 | 3,500 | 4,000 | 4,500 | 5,000 | 5,500 | 6,000 | 6,500 | 7,000 | |
| Net Load1 | 61,425 | 61,004 | 60,969 | 60,575 | 60,086 | 59,600 | 59,035 | 58,447 | 57,870 | 57,394 | 57,302 | 56,862 | 56,734 | 56,917 | 57,348 |
| Net Capacity2 | 63,394 | 62,609 | 62,554 | 63,067 | 63,010 | 63,010 | 63,101 | 63,101 | 63,101 | 63,101 | 63,101 | 63,101 | 63,101 | 63,101 | 63,101 |
1Forecasted demand with efficiency, demand response, and combined heat and power
2 Less 12.5% reserve margin
Source: Optimal Energy.