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CHAPTER TWENTY-THREE
Efficiency and Conservation
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Exhibit 23-3

Effect of Efficiency, Demand Response and Combined Heat and Power on Demand Forecasts

(Peak Demand in Megawatts)
Peak Demand 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Base Case 63,222 64,318 65,950 67,548 69,034 70,561 72,123 73,719 75,350 77,017 78,749 80,521 82,332 84,184 86,077
Residential Savings 228 424 631 1,028 1,406 1,997 2,746 3,546 4,347 5,100 5,849 6,849 7,603 8,233 8,766
Commercial Savings 151 277 431 706 968 1,362 1,880 2,404 2,938 3,438 3,973 4,631 5,288 5,833 6,196
Industrial Savings 305 612 919 1,239 1,574 1,902 2,263 2,621 2,995 3,385 3,426 3,478 3,507 3,500 3,566
Demand Response 1,112 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200
Combined Heat and Power 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000
Net Load1 61,425 61,004 60,969 60,575 60,086 59,600 59,035 58,447 57,870 57,394 57,302 56,862 56,734 56,917 57,348
Net Capacity2 63,394 62,609 62,554 63,067 63,010 63,010 63,101 63,101 63,101 63,101 63,101 63,101 63,101 63,101 63,101

1Forecasted demand with efficiency, demand response, and combined heat and power
2 Less 12.5% reserve margin

Source: Optimal Energy.

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