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A Report to the
Citizens of Texas

Sept. 1, 2010 – Aug. 31, 2011 

The Texas Economy:
Where We Are, Where We’re Going

2011

Jobs

The Texas economic direction reflected an overall positive change in 2011, particularly with employment numbers:

  • Through December 2011, Texas recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession; the U.S. just 36 percent. At the end of fiscal 2011, Texas added 232,900 jobs, more than any other state.
  • Mining and logging was the fastest growing major industry in Texas.
  • However, government employment in Texas declined by 35,500 jobs (1.9 percent) during fiscal 2011, due to budget constraints and school district and postal service cutbacks.

Economic growth

In the face of a weak national recovery, Texas has a relatively attractive economic picture. The Texas economy moved more fully into recovery and showed significant job growth in the state.

  • Total state revenues were $1.7 billion above projection.
  • Motor vehicle sales were quite robust, with a 12.7 percent increase reflecting the backlog of demand.
  • With Texas serving as the headquarters for many companies in the oil and natural gas industry, the mining and logging industry’s contribution to Texas personal income was more than five times the national share.

Exports

  • Exports continued to boost Texas manufacturing. Texas exports increased by 21.6 percent in fiscal 2011.

2012 and Beyond

Challenges

The outlook is for continued moderate job growth in fiscal 2012 and 2013. Job growth is expected to slow somewhat in response to a period of economic weakness nationally and internationally.

Areas that will show gains

  • Motor vehicle tax revenue collections will continue to grow in fiscal 2012 by an expected 8.5 percent as consumers and businesses continue to replace older vehicles in an environment of more available credit and high fuel prices, manufacturer and dealer incentives and release of pent-up demand.
  • Because the Texas economy will continue to be healthier than the national economy, migration will be an important part of future state population growth. Texas population will increase by about 926,000 in the 2012-13 biennium — an average annual increase of 1.8 percent — to 26.6 million Texans in fiscal 2013.
  • Registered nurses topped the projected list of most-needed jobs, with a projected gain of 50,756 jobs in the decade ending in 2020, an increase of 30 percent from 2010. Filling these slots could be challenging, given an ongoing shortage of nurses.

Texas Economic Outlook for Fiscal 2011 through 2014
Indicator 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Gross State Product — total value of goods and services produced (billions) $1,253.6 $1,299.6 $1,353.2 $1,431.8
real gross state product Annual Percent Change 5.7% 3.7% 4.1% 5.8%
Taxable Oil Price ($ per barrel) $87.85 $78.65 $78.67 $81.45
Taxable Natural Gas Price ($ per MCF) $4.13 $3.98 $3.93 $4.28
Nonfarm Employment 10,520,300 10,671,400 10,834,300 11,049,500
Nonfarm EmploymentAnnual Percent Change 2.2% 1.4% 1.5% 2.0%
Unemployment Rate (percent) 8.2% 8.3% 8.1% 7.5%

Gross State Product is a measure of the total value of goods and services produced in Texas.
Nonfarm Employment represents the number of jobs in the economy, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

 

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