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Biennial Revenue Estimate 2014-2015
January 2013


Download the Biennial Revenue Estimate 2014-2015 (PDF, 1.7M)

Under state law, the Comptroller’s office issues the Biennial Revenue Estimate (BRE) before the beginning of each session of the Texas Legislature. The BRE is a formal estimate of the funds likely to be available from taxes and other revenue sources over the next two years, in effect telling the Legislature how much money it can spend over the state’s two-year budget cycle.

Excerpted from the Transmittal Letter:

“For 2014-15, the state can expect to have $101.4 billion in funds available for general-purpose spending. This represents a 12.4 percent increase from the corresponding amount of funds available for 2012-13.”

“General Revenue-related tax and fee collections in 2014-15 are estimated to total $96.2 billion, with tax revenues accounting for approximately 89 percent of the total. Reserved from $96.2 billion is an estimated $3.6 billion representing oil and natural gas revenues that will be deposited to the Economic Stabilization Fund.”

“Significantly bolstering the anticipated revenue collections of $96.2 billion for 2014-15 is the ending 2012-13 General Revenue-related balance, projected to be $8.8 billion. This projected ending balance is a reflection of better-than-expected revenue collections as the state rebounded from the recession and the positive effects of robust oil and natural gas activity over the past several years.”

“In addition to the General Revenue-related funds, the state stands to collect $112.0 billion in federal receipts and other revenues dedicated for specific purposes and therefore unavailable for general-purpose spending. Revenue collections from all sources and for all purposes should total $208.2 billion.”

At a Glance

For 2014-15, the state can expect to have $101.4 billion in funds available for general-purpose spending.

This represents a 12.4 percent increase from the corresponding amount of funds available for 2012-13.

Revenue Available for
General-Purpose Spending
2014-15 Biennium

Projected revenue available for general purpose spending in 2014-15 is $101.4 billion, with a beginning balance of $8.8 billion and revenue collections of $96.2 billion, less $3.6 billion set aside for transfers to the Rainy Day Fund.

Note: The beginning balance and net revenue are estimated.
Source: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

Employment and Housing Trends
From Fiscal 2000 to 2012

Texas lost 428,000 jobs in the recession from a summer 2008 peak, but regained those jobs by December 2011 and added 258,000 more since. The Texas housing sector was hard hit by the recession and is showing some improvement - not robust, but up off the bottom.

Source: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts


Sales Tax Annual Percent Change
Fiscal 2000 to 2012

The Texas sales tax, the source of over 50% of general revenue, exhibited volatility over the last decade - from recession - to recovery - to boom - recession again - a brief recovery and a boom.  That was 2 recessions and 2 recoveries in slightly more than a decade.

Source: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

Motor Vehicle Sales Tax, Oil & Gas Revenue Trends From Fiscal 2000 to 2012

Collections from the motor vehicle sales tax were even more volatile, dropping over 22% in 2009 and a smaller drop in 2010, then gaining over 12% in 2011 and almost 20% in 2012. Texas severance taxes are more volatile than most revenue sources.  The gains from 2010 to 2012 were due to both higher oil prices and increased production.

Source: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

Texas Economic Stabilization Fund
Ending Balances by Fiscal Biennia

The higher oil and natural gas prices are - and the greater our Texas production is - the more dollars go into the Rainy Day Fund as well as the General Revenue Fund.  The Rainy Day Fund balance should be about $8.1 billion at the end end of 2012-13, and $11.8 billion at the end of 2014-15, absent any appropriations that might be made by the 83rd Legislature.

Note: These numbers assume no further Legislative appropriations.
Source: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

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