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Economic Trends and Outlook

Based on the Comptroller’s new 13-region economic model of Texas, employment in the South Texas Border region (covering a 16-county area from Del Rio to Laredo to McAllen to Brownsville) is projected to be the fastest growing region of the state from 2000 to 2005. During the first five years of the new millennium, employment growth in this region should reach 2.8 percent annually, nearly a full percentage point above the expected average of 1.9 percent for the state as a whole.

This optimistic outlook comes with challenges. Based on the value of production in the region, and not simply on jobs, this area will need to focus on securing better jobs.

This report details recent economic changes in the South Texas Border region, presents “baseline” forecasts for key economic indicators through 2005, discusses the structural changes that have led and will lead to economic growth in the region, presents a forecast for occupational changes likely in the region over the next five years and identifies possible target industries for future development. Economic development leaders within the region may wish to use this report to guide development of the region’s economy in upcoming years.

The Last 30 Years

The South Texas Border region, which generally follows the Rio Grande south from Del Rio to Brownsville, saw significant growth during the last 30 years of the 20th century. In real terms (1992 dollars), gross regional product in this region—the sum total of all value added within the region—nearly quadrupled from $5.3 billion in 1970 to $20.3 billion in 2000 (Graph 1). This is an average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent.

In terms of jobs, growth in this region has been even more astounding. In 1970, employment in the South Texas Border region was 177,000 but by 2000 had grown to 535,000, representing an average annual growth rate of 3.8 percent. In terms of population, this region grew from 535,000 inhabitants in 1970 to more than 1.3 million in 2000—an annual growth rate of 3.2 percent, eclipsing the statewide rate of 2.0 percent posted during this time.

The region’s rapid population increase, however, has dampened what otherwise might have been truly monumental gains in per capita income. Per capital spendable income rose from $7,400 in 1970 to $13,000 in 2000. This rise represents a gain of 76 percent, which is about the same as the per capita income gains seen in other parts of the state during this time. This means that residents of the region have greatly improved purchasing power over thirty years ago with gains that rival those in other parts of the state.

These growth rates determine if the region is becoming a larger part of the Texas pie. In terms of population and employment, the South Texas Border region is gaining in importance. In 1970, this region accounted for 4.8 percent of the state’s population and 3.5 percent of the state’s employment (Graph 2). By the turn of the century, this region accounted for 6.7 percent of the state’s population and 4.4 percent of the state’s employment base.

graph2

In value terms, the South Texas Border Region has become a more significant part of the Texas economy, but not to the same degree seen in employment or population. In 1970, this region accounted for 2.8 percent of the total gross regional product of the state, but by 2000 this percentage had risen up to only 3.4 percent.

Shifting Growth Patterns

Even within slowly growing economies, important structural shifts occur over time. These shifts often result from regional and even nationwide changes in production, consumption and technology. Analyzing these shifts can help identify prospects for future growth within the region.

Table 2 presents the historical employment figures for the South Texas Border region for 18 broad industries in 1980, 1990 and 2000. [1] These industries correspond to a functional classification of activities within the region rather than one more traditionally defined through Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes usually used to examine the economic structure of a region. The sectors in this table are ranked according to the average annual growth rate in employment over the last 20 years.

TABLE 2
South Texas Border Region Employment and Growth
1980-2000

  Employment in Region Average
Annual
Growth Rate
  1980 1990 2000
Healthcare 10,987 25,763 63,428 9.2%
Services to Business 5,833 12,392 26,239 7.8%
Other Transportation and Public Utilities 9,912 14,296 29,913 5.7%
Personal Services 8,455 13,333 21,257 4.7%
Tourism and Entertainment 18,258 27,851 45,641 4.7%
Construction, Building Materials 15,949 16,795 34,610 3.9%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 15,087 18,763 29,252 3.4%
Federal Government 5,406 6,541 10,324 3.3%
State Government 6,403 7,431 12,136 3.2%
Local Government 42,451 57,031 80,347 3.2%
Other Services 11,882 17,162 21,511 3.0%
Other Durable Goods Manufacturing 3,441 4,096 5,894 2.7%
High Tech, Communications, Aviation and Electronics 5,574 6,630 8,380 2.1%
Wholesale and Retail Trade 60,698 71,516 87,554 1.8%
Other Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing 13,351 15,061 14,459 0.4%
Agriculture and Related Processing 32,828 28,971 30,975 (0.3)%
Other 3,389 3,906 2,996 (0.6)%
Oil and Gas Production, Refining and Petrochemicals 6,142 4,890 5,132 (0.9)%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

Topping this list is health care. Both local population growth and national trends are dominating job growth. Clearly underlying many of the local economic trends is growth in population. This has driven the growth rate of health care employment far above any other region in the state. Adding to this source of growth is the fact that as incomes grow, more and more is spent on health care.

The increasing technological sophistication of health care improves the effectiveness of health care but also drives up costs. Health care is a service that most often must be administered by trained professionals on a one-on-one basis, so the movement of technological innovations to lower personnel requirements—a by-product of technology seen in many other industries—has not been as broadly felt in health care. As a result, the demand for health care services has risen rapidly over the past 20 years.

The second fastest growing industry is business services. This growth is largely the result of a long-term reorganization of many existing businesses that increasingly rely on outsourcing. The post-World War II model of industrial organization continues to break down as more and more responsibilities that were previously held within the structure of the parent firm are now outsourced to other companies. In the case of responsibilities such as janitorial services, this is a trend towards specialization. In the case of copy machine repair, or training personnel to use new computer programs, outsourcing is driven by increasing technological sophistication as specially trained workers are needed to operate equipment. Increased use of contract workers that may replace full-time employees is direct outsourcing and drives the growth of business services employment because some of these contract workers are provided through temporary help agencies.

To a large extent the increasing use of contract labor is merely a reshuffling of employment opportunities from other sectors (manufacturing in particular) to this sector. As such, this shift represents a positive change in the productivity and competitiveness of these businesses rather than degradation of manufacturing capacity.

The third fastest growing sector has been in those sectors of transportation serving cross-border trade. The explosion of economic activity across the U.S.–Mexico Border with NAFTA is well documented and shows up in the rapid increase in jobs for those involved in the physical transport and processing of goods moving in this trade.

The fourth and fifth fastest growing sectors both reflect the same influence-increasing wealth. With rising incomes consumers can spend more on personal services and have more leisure time—or at least more money to spend on leisure and entertainment. Rising real incomes strengthen of the gains in the entertainment and tourism and personal services industries. Moreover, the South Texas Border region itself has become a tourist destination for winter Texans, birders, sport fishermen and activities on the South Padre beaches.

Good growth in construction activity is the result of rising population, rising income and an improving job market.

Growth in all levels of government employment reflects the increasing population levels and growing cross-border trade. Population gains are tied directly to gains in local government employment such as teachers, police and firemen. At the state level, there have been significant employment gains at institutions of higher education and also some increased prison employment. Gains at the federal level stem mostly from increased trade with Mexico.

At the other end of the growth spectrum are the areas in which the region has not seen the same growth rate. In some cases, such as in the oil and gas industry, this is part of a much wider trend brought on by the distribution of natural resources and industry consolidation.

Identifying Regional Comparative Advantage

One key to understanding how a region’s economy evolves is to examine what unique advantages the region provides to certain industries, and how those industries have fared over time.

One device for identifying and summarizing the industries in which a region specializes is through a “location quotient.” This descriptive statistic identifies which industries are unique to a region by comparing the percentage of employment in each industry in the region to the percentage of employment that the same industry accounts for in the nation as a whole. If an industry accounts for more of the region’s total employment than it does of the nation’s, the region is seen as specializing in that industry. Moreover, because the industry has flourished in the region, the region is said to have demonstrated a comparative advantage for that industry. In practice, the percentage of an industry in the region’s employment base must usually greatly exceed the national percentage for the industry to be truly considered unique to the region.

The industries with location quotients greater than 1.5 in 2000 in the South Texas Border region are identified in Table 3 along with the national employment growth rates from 1990 to 2000 of these industries. This list contains industries that are typically found in any list of industries unique to Texas as well as many industries that are unique to the South Texas Border region.

TABLE 3
Location Quotients for Key Industries
in the South Texas Border Region

  Location
Quotient		 National Employment
Average Annual
Growth Rate
1990-2000
Miscellaneous Transportation Services 10.5 4.9%
Apparel 6.7 (5.6)%
Health Services 4.8 5.8%
Oil and Gas Field Services 4.5 (0.8)%
Footwear, Except Rubber and Plastic 4.0 (8.6)%
Preserved Fruits and Vegetables 2.8 (0.8)%
Miscellaneous Food and Kindred Products 2.5 0.1%
Agricultural Services 2.4 4.4%
Trucking and Warehousing 2.1 3.1%
Job Training and Related Services 1.7 4.8%
Forestry, Fishing, Hunting, and Trapping 1.7 (1.5)%
Offices of Health Practitioners 1.6 3.1%
Crude Petroleum, Natural Gas and Gas Liquids 1.6 (4.9)%
Video Tape Rental 1.6 2.1%
Nonmetallic Minerals, Except Fuels 1.5 (1.3)%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

Prominent in this list is transportation. The role served by the South Texas Border region in facilitating trade with Mexico results in a high concentration of economic activity in some specialized transportation functions, including those related to the drayage system unique to this region. Moreover, these functions have been growing in employment nationwide, making this region an important home to an expanding economic sector.

The South Texas Border region is an important center of apparel production in the nation. This is documented in the high location quotient. Strong foreign competition in the U.S. apparel market has affected this industry nationwide for at least the last decade.

Like many parts of Texas that are dominated by urban areas, the South Texas Border region has a significant concentration of some health care activities which serve a larger area lying beyond the major metropolitan center. In this case, these facilities may also be serving a larger population in northern Mexico and as a result, are somewhat larger than might be expected based on purely domestic activity.

Also like much of Texas, the South Texas border region is home to some components of the oil and gas industry. The economic structure of South Texas is also home to some significant agricultural production, although this is more dominated in this region by food products and less by meat and cotton.

If past national industry employment trends correlate with future directions of change, the growth rates cited in Table 3 indicate many of the industries in the South Texas Border region that have grown there due to the region’s unique attributes are unlikely to be able to carry the region further into the next millennium. In particular, the oil and gas and apparel industries have been in decline nationally for at least the last decade.

While the location quotient is a useful measure to summarize the industries in which the region specialized in the past, it is a static measure. A more dynamic approach looks at the growth of industries in the region and compares that growth to what might have been expected had the industry followed the same growth pattern as these industries in other parts of the nation. This dynamic approach to looking at the region’s economic structure is known as shift-share analysis.

Like the location quotient, the approach in shift-share analysis is designed to develop a standard through which to assess if the change in the level of industry activity in a region is higher than expected, about what should be expected or less than expected. If local employment change is greater than what might otherwise be expected, then the region has demonstrated some strength in attracting that industry. In practice, the yardstick usually employed is changes in each industry in the national economy, modified somewhat for local conditions.

One result of shift-share analysis is the “regional industry growth differential.” This measure is the ratio of what employment in an industry in the region actually was in the most recent period divided by what industry employment would have been if it had historically grown at the same rate as the industry did across the nation. The interpretation of this measure of dynamic growth potential is that it represents the number of times larger (or smaller) actual employment is in the most recent time period compared to what it would have been if the industry had grown at the same rate as the industry did across the nation. In practice, industries identified as unique in the region through the location quotient measure tend to be those that have demonstrated a sustained period of economic strength in the region, whereas those identified by the growth differential measure can be those starting to show some emerging strength.

Table 4 presents the industries in the South Texas Border region that have a regional industry growth differential greater than 1.25 and employed at least 200 workers in 2000. The average annual rate of employment growth in the industry from 1980 to 2000 in the South Texas Border region is also shown. The 1.25 cut-off point indicates that industry employment in 2000 in the region was 25 percent larger than would have been expected based on the industry’s employment in 1980 and the growth of the region and industry nationwide from 1980 to 2000. In the same sense as with the static location quotient, these industries have demonstrated a significant level of concentration over time in the South Texas Border region and show this region has some comparative advantage in their development.

TABLE 4
Industry Growth Differentials in the South Texas Border Region
for Industries with at least 200 Employees in 2000

Industry Regional
Industry Growth
Differential		 Average Annual
Employment Growth
1980 -2000
Footwear, Except Rubber and Plastic 4.31 0.8%
Aerospace, Aircraft Maintenance 3.18 5.8%
Ship and Boat Building and Repairing 3.17 5.9%
Household Furniture 2.59 6.5%
Sawmills and Planning Mills 2.33 4.9%
Millwork, Plywood, and Structural Members 2.32 7.9%
Fabricated Structural Metal Products 2.12 5.0%
Trucking and Warehousing 1.99 7.2%
Nursing and Personal Care Facilities 1.96 8.1%
Health Services 1.96 12.7%
Hospitals 1.96 7.1%
Offices of Health Practitioners 1.96 9.2%
Miscellaneous Manufactured Products 1.89 4.6%
Apparel 1.77 0.1%
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products 1.77 4.7%
Educational Services 1.67 7.5%
Federal Civilian 1.56 3.3%
Local and Interurban Passenger Transit 1.52 7.0%
Air Transportation 1.46 8.7%
Eating and Drinking Places 1.36 5.8%
Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing 1.33 8.2%
Computer and Data Processing Services 1.33 12.1%
Advertising 1.33 5.8%
Personnel Supply Services 1.33 12.5%
Miscellaneous Business Services 1.33 7.7%
Services to Buildings 1.33 6.3%
Railroad Transportation 1.26 (2.0)%
Depository Institutions 1.25 3.7%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

There is some overlap between this list and Table 3, but it is far from complete. The region is not only home to a significant concentration of health care related and transportation industries, but this concentration is increasing. The region also is developing a small, but growing role in aircraft repair and maintenance. Several industries on Table 4 have grown because of related local growth in construction or because of maquiladora operations. The region’s coastal access provides an environment for activities related to ship and boat building development.

Overall, there is a significant trend toward industrial diversification in the South Texas Border region including industries that require more highly skilled workers. In addition to the skills required in health care, educational services and computer programming also need workers with more sophisticated skills.

Table 4 confirms some of the comparative advantages identified in the location quotient and helps identify others. Measures such as the location quotient or the industry growth differential identify industries for which the South Texas Border region has demonstrated a comparative advantage. These industries define the competitive character of the region, and these measures are discussed in the last section of this report to identify industries with strong potential to help the region grow in the future.

Growth Forecasts Through 2005

Forecasted changes in the statewide economy and the strong theoretical framework of the 13-region Texas model allow the estimation of baseline forecasts of growth for each region in Texas.

Based on expected employment gains, the South Texas Border region will be the fastest growing region in the state through 2005 despite some anticipated economic slowdown statewide. During the same period, employment growth in the South Texas Border region should average 2.8 percent annually, compared to only a 1.9 percent growth rate for the state.

The apparent contradiction between the growth rates of employment and that for gross regional product points to good job growth. The region should add about 77,900 additional jobs from 2000 to 2005, rising from 535,000 in 2000 to 612,900 in 2005. As expected across the state, this rate of growth will be slowest during the next couple of years but will accelerate into 2004 and 2005.

Through 2005, real gross regional product in the region—the total value added through production within the region—should expand at a 2.4 annual rate, from $20.3 billion in 1992 dollars in 2000 to $22.9 billion in 2005. Compared to the projected 3.2 percent annual growth of the state in the value of production, the South Texas Border region will expand at a slightly slower rate than the state. This level of economic growth will accompany strong population gains. Population in the region is expected to rise from 1,358,700 in 2000 to 1,516,600 in 2005.

The employment growth seen in the region are less likely to fall evenly across all industries, but there are two ways to look at the distribution of this growth. Table 5 presents the 25 top growth industries in the region in terms of the number of new jobs they will generate between 2000 and 2005. Large industries dominate this list because increases in growth rates applied to a large employment base generate large numbers of new jobs. The top two ranked industries in terms of jobs added to 2005 are also the largest two industries.

TABLE 5
South Texas Border Industries Adding the Most Jobs
Between 2000 and 2005
(Projected)

    Regional Employment Jobs
Added		 Average
Annual
Growth
    2000 2005
1 Local Government 80,347 92,820 12,473 2.9%
2 Retail Trade, Except Eating and Drinking Places 69,328 77,436 8,108 2.2%
3 Health Services 20,733 28,619 7,886 6.7%
4 Construction 32,675 37,464 4,789 2.8%
5 Eating and Drinking Places 29,436 34,016 4,580 2.9%
6 Offices of Health Practitioners 18,029 21,666 3,637 3.7%
7 Miscellaneous Business Services 7,515 10,873 3,358 7.7%
8 Personnel Supply Services 7,551 10,906 3,355 7.6%
9 Agricultural Services 14,160 16,588 2,428 3.2%
10 Trucking and Warehousing 15,740 18,043 2,303 2.8%
11 State Government 12,136 14,019 1,883 2.9%
12 Wholesale Trade 18,226 19,853 1,627 1.7%
13 Legal Services 5,082 6,707 1,625 5.7%
14 Depository Institutions 10,237 11,709 1,472 2.7%
15 Hospitals 17,601 18,926 1,325 1.5%
16 Real Estate 11,228 12,380 1,152 2.0%
17 Management and Public Relations 2,532 3,650 1,118 7.6%
18 Miscellaneous Transportation Services 9,181 10,273 1,092 2.3%
19 Automobile Parking, Repair, and Services 4,810 5,861 1,051 4.0%
20 Services to Buildings 2,700 3,710 1,010 6.6%
21 Nursing and Personal Care Facilities 6,309 7,319 1,010 3.0%
22 Private Households 4,784 5,762 978 3.8%
23 Amusement and Recreation Services, NEC 5,116 6,057 941 3.4%
24 Accounting, Auditing and Other Services 2,657 3,494 837 5.6%
25 Child Day Care Services 4,313 5,132 819 3.5%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

Many of the industries generating large numbers of new jobs in the South Texas Border region through 2005 will be driven by population growth and changes in consumer expenditure patterns that have been seen over the past few years. For example, strong population growth will continue to drive the need for more municipal and school district workers. There is a continued shift towards expenditures on consumer services such as restaurants, health services, and amusement expenditures. Many of the industries supplying these services employ a large number of people, so even modest growth in the demand for these industries can result in sizable job growth. For example, an expected 6.7 percent annual growth in the demand for health care will generate a substantial number of new jobs.

Construction could also add more jobs, but the forecasted growth rate of 2.8 percent annually pales in comparison to the 7.0 percent annual rate of employment growth in construction posted from 1995 to 2000 in the South Texas Border region.

Also fueling strong overall growth will be services provided to business, including personnel supply services, legal services, management and public relations and miscellaneous business services. This growth will serve to aid businesses involved in trade with Mexico and will help existing firms continue a trend of outsourcing jobs, a strong trend seen in the business community over the past 20 years. Increased trade with Mexico will continue to fuel growth in trucking and warehousing activity.

A ranking of industries by their likely growth rate from 2000 to 2005, detailed in Table 6, reveals some of the forces driving changes in the South Texas Border region. More technical, higher skilled workers are needed in these industries. Topping this list of high-growth industries is computer and data processing services, as well as research and testing services, followed closely by management and public relations, health care, aerospace (aircraft repair and maintenance), legal services, accounting and auditing services, engineering services and communications—all industries relying on a well-trained, highly educated work force.

TABLE 6
25 Fastest Growing Industries in the South Texas Border Region
2000 to 2005
(Projected)

    Regional Employment Jobs
Gained		 Percentage
Growth
    2000 2005
1 Computer and Data Processing Services 608 1,114 506 12.9%
2 Research and Testing Services 330 485 155 8.0%
3 Miscellaneous Business Services 7,515 10,873 3,358 7.7%
4 Personnel Supply Services 7,551 10,906 3,355 7.6%
5 Management and Public Relations 2,532 3,650 1,118 7.6%
6 Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing 1,120 1,603 483 7.4%
7 Health Services 20,733 28,619 7,886 6.7%
8 Aerospace 446 613 167 6.6%
9 Services to Buildings 2,700 3,710 1,010 6.6%
10 Residential Care 756 1,032 276 6.4%
11 Legal Services 5,082 6,707 1,625 5.7%
12 Accounting, Auditing, and Other Services 2,657 3,494 837 5.6%
13 Water and Sanitation 434 561 127 5.3%
14 Construction and Related Machinery 468 604 136 5.2%
15 Industrial Machinery 378 487 109 5.2%
16 Advertising 314 400 86 5.0%
17 Engineering and Architectural Services 1,549 1,966 417 4.9%
18 Ship and Boat Building and Repairing 723 914 191 4.8%
19 Individual and Miscellaneous Social Services 3,556 4,371 815 4.2%
20 Funeral Service and Crematories 649 797 148 4.2%
21 Millwork, Plywood, and Structural Members 613 749 136 4.1%
22 Automobile Parking, Repair, and Services 4,810 5,861 1,051 4.0%
23 Beauty and Barber Shops 2,863 3,485 622 4.0%
24 Personal Services 1,660 2,018 358 4.0%
25 Communications 3,158 3,821 663 3.9%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

The importance of education and the need for work force training is most apparent when looking at how projected industrial growth translates into occupational change. Table 7 presents the forecast for the 25 occupations expected to add the most positions over the next five years. As in the case of the 25 industries adding the most jobs, this table tends to be dominated by occupations that employ a lot of people at the start of the forecast period and grow moderately thereafter.

For example, the 13-region model breaks regional employment into 94 occupations. In the case of the South Texas Border region, this would mean each occupational category would contain an average of about 5,700 people. The 25 occupational categories generating the most jobs in the region through 2005 typically have at least twice that number of jobs. Most of these large occupational categories will see moderate growth rates over the next few years, but because of their size generate a large number of new positions. But in some cases expected rapid growth rates in smaller occupational categories will drive large occupational growth, as is the case with computer scientists.

TABLE 7
Occupations in the South Texas Border Region Adding the Most Positions
2000-2005
(Projected)

    Occupations  
    2000 2005 Occupation
Job Gain		 Average
Annual
% Growth
1 Other Clerical and Administrative Support Workers 32,809 38,111 5,302 3.0%
2 Managerial and Administrative 33,522 38,760 5,238 2.9%
3 Food Preparation and Service 33,335 37,608 4,273 2.4%
4 Protective Service 18,733 22,860 4,127 4.1%
5 Health Assessment and Treating 15,372 18,517 3,145 3.8%
6 Motor Vehicle Operators 19,261 22,346 3,085 3.0%
7 Health Service 13,074 16,148 3,074 4.3%
8 Teachers, Librarians, Counselors 17,742 20,712 2,970 3.1%
9 Construction Trades 19,216 22,082 2,866 2.8%
10 Health Technicians and Technologists 13,534 16,353 2,819 3.9%
11 Management Support 16,484 19,139 2,655 3.0%
12 Computer Scientists, Mathematicians and Operations Researchers 4,867 7,397 2,530 8.7%
13 Helpers, Laborers and Material Movers, Hand 20,208 22,736 2,528 2.4%
14 Personal Service 9,745 12,233 2,488 4.7%
15 Salespersons, Retail 18,176 20,556 2,380 2.5%
16 Cashiers 14,559 16,653 2,094 2.7%
17 Social, Recreational and Religious Workers 8,512 10,541 2,029 4.4%
18 All Other Sales and Related Workers 10,352 12,043 1,691 3.1%
19 Cleaning and Building Services, Except Private Households 12,609 14,164 1,555 2.4%
20 Information Clerks 8,216 9,726 1,510 3.4%
21 Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatchers and Distributors 16,686 18,088 1,402 1.6%
22 Marketing and Sales Worker Supervisors 7,315 8,423 1,108 2.9%
23 Gardeners, Nursery, Greenhouse, Lawn Services 8,462 9,519 1,057 2.4%
24 Secretaries, Stenographers and Typists 14,384 15,398 1,014 1.4%
25 Blue Collar Worker Supervisors 7,397 8,356 959 2.5%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

Table 8 presents the 25 occupations expected to grow at the fastest rates though 2005. In this list, the importance of future training and education is evident. The list is led by the need for additional computer scientists, includes health service workers, engineers, health technicians, information clerks, health assessment workers, life scientists, social scientist, architects, engineering and scientific technicians, physical scientists as well as teachers. Eighteen of the top 25 occupations are expected to grow the fastest during the next five years will require some advanced training beyond high school, and most of these will require either an associate’s degree, a bachelor’s degree or other advanced degrees.

TABLE 8
25 Fastest Growing Occupations in the South Texas Border Region
2000-2005
(Projected)

    Occupations  
    2000 2005 Occupational
Gain		 Average
Annual
Percent Gain
1 Computer Scientists, Mathematicians and Operations Researchers 4,867 7,397 2,530 8.7%
2 Personal Service 9,745 12,233 2,488 4.7%
3 Lawyers 1,740 2,167 427 4.5%
4 Social, Recreational and Religious Workers 8,512 10,541 2,029 4.4%
5 Health Service 13,074 16,148 3,074 4.3%
6 Health Diagnosing 3,947 4,842 895 4.2%
7 Protective Service 18,733 22,860 4,127 4.1%
8 Technicians, Except Health, Engineering and Science 3,609 4,404 795 4.1%
9 Private Household Workers 4,224 5,124 900 3.9%
10 Health Technicians and Technologists 13,534 16,353 2,819 3.9%
11 Health Assessment and Treating 15,372 18,517 3,145 3.8%
12 Adjusters, Investigators and Collectors 4,253 5,121 868 3.8%
13 Engineers 3,615 4,348 733 3.8%
14 Life Scientists 781 937 156 3.7%
15 Information Clerks 8,216 9,726 1,510 3.4%
16 Writers, Artists and Entertainers 3,684 4,351 667 3.4%
17 Social Scientists 1,055 1,240 185 3.3%
18 Architects and Surveyors 489 574 85 3.3%
19 Counter and Rental Clerks 2,049 2,402 353 3.2%
20 Engineering and Science Technicians and Technologists 3,758 4,405 647 3.2%
21 Physical Scientists 617 723 106 3.2%
22 All Other Professional Workers 2,987 3,496 509 3.2%
23 Other Mechanics, Installers and Repairmen 4,833 5,648 815 3.2%
24 Teachers, Librarians, Counselors 17,742 20,712 2,970 3.1%
25 Security and Financial Services Sales Workers 1,067 1,245 178 3.1%
SOURCES: Carole Keeton Rylander, Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; and REMI.

Endnote

[1] State and Local government sectors were not defined separately until 1979.